Imported from wonderstone/agent-framework-template (
.github/skills/finance-macro/macro-dashboard/SKILL.md). Install upstream withnpx skills add wonderstone/agent-framework-template --skill macro-dashboard. Copyright stays with the author.
Macroeconomic Dashboard
Purpose
On-demand macroeconomic snapshot with composite scoring and recession risk assessment. Aggregates 19 indicators across growth, inflation, labor, and financial conditions into a single composite score.
How to Use
# Full pipeline
python3 scripts/orchestrator.py '{"domain":"macro-dashboard","country":"USA"}'
# Individual models
python3 macro-dashboard/scripts/indicator_hub.py --gdp 2.8 --unrate 4.1 --spread -0.25 ...
python3 macro-dashboard/scripts/yield_curve.py --dgs2 4.85 --dgs10 4.55 --dtb3 5.30
Key Signals
Yield curve: The single most reliable recession indicator. Every US recession since 1950 was preceded by 10Y-3M inversion. But inversion is a leading indicator, not a timing tool — inversion can last 12-24 months before recession.
Sahm Rule: When 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.50pp above its 12-month low, recession is likely underway. Real-time indicator, not a forecast.
Composite approach: Single indicators mislead. Always check the composite across all four dimensions (growth, inflation, labor, financial conditions).
Red Flags
- Seasonal adjustments matter — always use SA data
- PMI is survey-based and noisy — confirm with hard data (IP, retail sales)
- GDP is backward-looking (1-month lag, revised multiple times)
- Full employment doesn't mean no recession — labor market is a lagging indicator
- Financial conditions can turn on a dime — credit spreads lead equities
