earnings-analysis

Imported from wind-alice/alicemarket (skills/earnings-analysis/SKILL.md). Install upstream with npx skills add wind-alice/alicemarket --skill earnings-analysis. Copyright stays with the author.

Equity Research Earnings Update

Create professional EARNINGS UPDATE REPORTS analyzing quarterly results for companies already under coverage, following institutional standards (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley format).

Key Characteristics:

• Length: 8-12 pages
• Word Count: 3,000-5,000 words
• Tables: 1-3 summary tables (NOT comprehensive)
• Figures: 8-12 charts
• Turnaround: 1-2 days (within 24-48 hours of earnings)
• Audience: Clients already familiar with the company
• Focus: What's NEW - beat/miss, updated estimates, thesis impact
• Font: Times New Roman throughout (unless user specifies otherwise)

When to Use

Use when the user requests:

• "Create an earnings update for [Company] Q3 2024"
• "Analyze [Company]'s quarterly results"
• "Post-earnings report for [Company]"
• "Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 update for [Company]"

Do NOT use if:

• User requests "initiation report" → Use different skill
• User requests "flash note" or "quick take" → Different format
• Company is not already covered → Need initiation first

Critical Requirements

1. Speed & Timeliness

• Publish within 24-48 hours of earnings release
• Focus on NEW information only
• Don't rehash company background extensively

2. Beat/Miss Analysis

• Lead with whether company beat or missed estimates
• Quantify variances (e.g., "Revenue beat by $120M or 3%")
• Explain WHY results differed from expectations

3. Summary Format

• Keep tables to 1-3 (summary only, not comprehensive)
• No full P&L/Cash Flow/Balance Sheet (just key metrics)
• Assume reader has seen initiation report

4. Citations & Source Attribution ⭐⭐⭐ MANDATORY

CRITICAL: Properly cite all data with SPECIFIC sources and CLICKABLE HYPERLINKS.

Include specific citations WITH CLICKABLE LINKS in every figure and table:

Source: Q3 2024 10-Q filed November 8, 2024; Company earnings release
        [Hyperlink "10-Q" to: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?accession=...]
        [Hyperlink "earnings release" to: https://investor.company.com/news/q3-2024]

HOW HYPERLINKS SHOULD APPEAR IN WORD:

• Document names appear as blue, underlined clickable links
• Reader can Ctrl+Click to open source directly
• Not plain text URLs - formatted hyperlinks with display text

REQUIRED SOURCES LIST:

Cite in every earnings update:

• ✅ Earnings release (with date and URL)
• ✅ 10-Q filing (with filing date and EDGAR link)
• ✅ Earnings call transcript (with date)
• ✅ Investor presentation/supplemental materials (if available)
• ✅ Consensus estimates source (Bloomberg/FactSet/etc. with date)
• ✅ Prior guidance (from previous quarter's materials)

REFERENCE SECTION WITH CLICKABLE HYPERLINKS:

Include "Sources" section at end of report:

SOURCES & REFERENCES

Earnings Materials (Q3 2024):
• Earnings Release (November 7, 2024)
  [Hyperlink entire line to: https://investor.company.com/news/q3-2024-earnings]

• Form 10-Q (Filed November 8, 2024)
  [Hyperlink to: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?accession=...]

• Earnings Call Transcript (November 7, 2024)
  [Hyperlink to: https://seekingalpha.com/article/...]

• Investor Presentation (November 7, 2024)
  [Hyperlink to: https://investor.company.com/presentations/q3-2024.pdf]

VERIFICATION CHECKLIST:

• Every figure has source with specific document and date
• Every table has source with document reference
• Beat/miss analysis cites consensus source with date
• Guidance changes cite current and prior guidance sources
• Key statistics have footnotes
• Sources section lists all materials with URLs
• ALL URLs are CLICKABLE HYPERLINKS (not plain text)
• All SEC filings hyperlinked to EDGAR viewer

5. Updated Estimates

• Update forward estimates based on results
• Show old vs. new estimates clearly
• Explain what changed and why

High-Level Workflow

The earnings update process follows 5 phases:

Phase 1: Data Collection (30-60 minutes)

🚨🚨🚨 CRITICAL: TRAINING DATA IS OUTDATED 🚨🚨🚨

BEFORE STARTING - COMPLETE THESE 4 STEPS IN ORDER:

1. CHECK TODAY'S DATE - Write down the current date
2. SEARCH FOR LATEST - Use web search: "[Company] latest earnings results"
3. VERIFY THE DATE - Confirm earnings release is within last 3 months
4. CHECK TRANSCRIPT DATE - Verify transcript date matches release date

COMMON MISTAKE: Using outdated earnings calls from training data instead of searching for the latest.

REQUIREMENTS:

• ✅ Search for latest earnings - do NOT rely on training data
• ✅ Write down today's date and the release date found
• ✅ Verify release date is within 3 months of today
• ✅ Verify transcript date matches release date
• ✅ If dates don't match or are old (>3 months), search again

See references/workflow.md for detailed search procedures and verification steps.

Phase 2: Analysis (2-3 hours)

• Beat/miss analysis for each key metric
• Segment/geographic/product breakdown
• Margin and guidance analysis
• Update financial model and estimates

See references/workflow.md for detailed analysis framework.

Phase 3: Chart Generation (1-2 hours)

Create 8-12 charts focusing on quarterly trends and what's new:

• Quarterly revenue progression
• Quarterly EPS progression
• Quarterly margin trends
• Revenue by segment/geography
• Key operating metrics
• Beat/miss summary
• Estimate revisions
• Valuation charts

See references/workflow.md for chart specifications.

Phase 4: Report Creation (2-3 hours)

Create 8-12 page DOCX report with specific structure.

See references/report-structure.md for complete page-by-page templates and formatting requirements.

High-level structure:

• Page 1: Earnings summary with rating and price target
• Pages 2-3: Detailed results analysis
• Pages 4-5: Key metrics & guidance
• Pages 6-7: Updated investment thesis
• Pages 8-10: Valuation & estimates
• Pages 11-12: Appendix (optional)

Phase 5: Quality Check & Delivery (30 minutes)

Verify content, formatting, accuracy, and timeliness before delivery.

See references/best-practices.md for quality checklist and common mistakes to avoid.

Output Specification

Primary Deliverable: DOCX report (8-12 pages) File Name: [Company]_Q[Quarter]_[Year]_Earnings_Update.docx Example: Nike_Q2_FY24_Earnings_Update.docx

Contents:

• Page 1: Summary with rating, price target, key takeaways
• Pages 2-3: Detailed results analysis
• Pages 4-5: Key metrics and guidance
• Pages 6-7: Updated thesis assessment
• Pages 8-10: Valuation and estimates
• Pages 11-12: Appendix (optional)
• 8-12 embedded charts
• 1-3 summary tables
• Complete sources section with clickable hyperlinks

Optional Deliverable: XLS model update (optional for earnings updates)

Key Differences from Initiation Report

Resources

references/workflow.md

Detailed Phase 1-5 instructions with step-by-step procedures for data collection, analysis, chart generation, and report creation.

references/report-structure.md

Complete page-by-page templates, table formats, and formatting requirements for the DOCX report.

references/best-practices.md

Examples of good/bad headlines, tips for success, common mistakes to avoid, and comprehensive quality checklist.

Dependencies

Required:

• Python (matplotlib, pandas, seaborn) for chart generation
• DOCX skill for report creation

Optional:

• XLS skill for model updates (not required for earnings updates)