legal-risk-scoring

Imported from okou-ai/vm0-skills (legal-risk-scoring/SKILL.md). Install upstream with npx skills add okou-ai/vm0-skills --skill legal-risk-scoring. Copyright stays with the author.

Scoring Model

Two-Axis Evaluation Grid

Every legal risk is measured across two independent axes:

Impact Magnitude (consequences if the risk becomes reality):

Occurrence Probability (how likely the risk is to materialize):

Computing the Score

Risk Score = Impact Magnitude x Occurrence Probability

Visual Grid

                     OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY
               Negligible  Low   Moderate  Elevated  Near Certain
                  (1)      (2)     (3)       (4)        (5)
IMPACT
Severe    (5) |   5    |   10   |   15   |   20   |     25     |
Serious   (4) |   4    |    8   |   12   |   16   |     20     |
Substantial(3)|   3    |    6   |    9   |   12   |     15     |
Minor     (2) |   2    |    4   |    6   |    8   |     10     |
Trivial   (1) |   1    |    2   |    3   |    4   |      5     |

Category Profiles and Response Protocols

GREEN -- Baseline Risk (Score 1-4)

Profile:

• Low-consequence issues with negligible probability
• Routine operational risks with well-established controls already in place
• Familiar risk patterns that the organization regularly manages

Protocol:

• Accept: Proceed with existing controls in place
• Log: Enter into the risk register for ongoing visibility
• Periodic check: Revisit during quarterly or annual review cycles
• No escalation: The responsible team member manages independently

Typical scenarios:

• Vendor agreement with a small deviation from preferred terms in a non-material area
• Standard confidentiality agreement with a reputable counterparty in a familiar jurisdiction
• Routine administrative compliance task with a clear owner and deadline

YELLOW -- Intermediate Risk (Score 5-9)

Profile:

• Issues of moderate consequence that could arise under realistic conditions
• Risks deserving active attention without requiring emergency response
• Situations where precedent provides a management roadmap

Protocol:

• Reduce exposure: Deploy targeted controls or negotiate improved terms
• Active surveillance: Review monthly or upon occurrence of defined trigger events
• Thorough documentation: Capture the risk, all mitigation steps, and decision rationale in the register
• Designated owner: A specific individual holds accountability for tracking and mitigation
• Stakeholder communication: Relevant business contacts are informed of the risk and the mitigation approach
• Escalation triggers: Define specific conditions that would push this risk to a higher category

Typical scenarios:

• Agreement with a liability ceiling below the preferred level but within a negotiable range
• Vendor processing personal data in a territory with uncertain adequacy status
• Regulatory development that may affect a business line over the medium term
• IP provision that is broader than optimal but consistent with market practice

ORANGE -- Elevated Risk (Score 10-15)

Profile:

• Weighty issues with a realistic chance of materializing
• Risks capable of producing significant financial, operational, or public-facing harm
• Situations demanding senior-level attention and structured mitigation

Protocol:

• Senior counsel involvement: Brief the head of legal or designated senior attorney
• Structured mitigation plan: Build a concrete, time-bound plan to reduce the risk
• Leadership awareness: Ensure relevant business leaders understand the risk and the recommended path
• Frequent review: Weekly check-ins or milestone-based reassessment
• External counsel assessment: Engage outside specialists for domain-specific guidance as warranted
• Detailed written analysis: Produce a full risk memorandum covering analysis, alternatives, and recommendations
• Contingency planning: Define the response playbook if the risk materializes

Typical scenarios:

• Agreement containing uncapped indemnification in a material obligation area
• Data processing operation that may violate regulatory requirements without restructuring
• Credible litigation threat from a significant counterparty
• Intellectual property infringement allegation with a plausible basis
• Formal regulatory inquiry or audit notification

RED -- Acute Risk (Score 16-25)

Profile:

• The most consequential issues, with high or near-certain probability of materializing
• Risks that threaten fundamental business viability, expose officers and directors, or endanger key stakeholders
• Demands immediate executive engagement and rapid mobilization

Protocol:

• Immediate executive briefing: Notify General Counsel, C-suite, and Board as the situation warrants
• Outside counsel retention: Engage specialized external lawyers without delay
• Dedicated response team: Stand up a cross-functional team with clearly defined roles and authority
• Insurance notification: Alert carriers where coverage may apply
• Crisis protocols: Activate crisis management procedures when reputational exposure exists
• Evidence preservation: Institute a litigation hold if legal proceedings are a possibility
• Continuous monitoring: Daily or more frequent status reviews until resolved or downgraded
• Board-level reporting: Include in governance risk reporting as appropriate
• Regulatory communication: File any mandatory regulatory notifications

Typical scenarios:

• Pending litigation with substantial financial exposure
• Personal data breach affecting regulated information
• Active regulatory enforcement proceeding
• Material breach of or against the organization under a significant contract
• Government investigation
• Infringement claim targeting a core product or revenue-generating service

Formal Documentation Standards

Risk Assessment Memorandum

Every formal evaluation should follow this structure:

## Legal Risk Evaluation

**Prepared**: [date]
**Analyst**: [name of person conducting the evaluation]
**Subject**: [description of the matter under review]
**Privilege designation**: [Yes/No -- mark as attorney-client privileged where applicable]

### 1. Risk Statement
[Precise, concise articulation of the legal risk]

### 2. Factual Background
[Relevant facts, chronology, and business context]

### 3. Scoring Analysis

#### Impact Magnitude: [1-5] - [Descriptor]
[Supporting rationale including potential financial exposure, operational consequences, and reputational dimensions]

#### Occurrence Probability: [1-5] - [Descriptor]
[Supporting rationale including precedent, triggering conditions, and current circumstances]

#### Composite Score: [Number] - [GREEN/YELLOW/ORANGE/RED]

### 4. Aggravating Factors
[Elements that amplify the risk]

### 5. Countervailing Factors
[Elements that dampen the risk or contain exposure]

### 6. Mitigation Alternatives

| Alternative | Effectiveness | Resource Demand | Recommended? |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Option A] | [High/Med/Low] | [High/Med/Low] | [Yes/No] |
| [Option B] | [High/Med/Low] | [High/Med/Low] | [Yes/No] |

### 7. Recommended Course of Action
[Specific recommendation with supporting rationale]

### 8. Post-Mitigation Risk Level
[Projected risk category after implementing recommended measures]

### 9. Ongoing Monitoring Plan
[Frequency and method of review; conditions that would trigger reassessment]

### 10. Immediate Next Steps
1. [Task - Responsible party - Due date]
2. [Task - Responsible party - Due date]

Risk Register Format

For entry into the team's centralized risk tracker:

Criteria for Engaging Outside Counsel

Situations Requiring External Representation

• Filed litigation: Any lawsuit brought by or against the organization
• Government proceedings: Any inquiry from a regulatory agency, government body, or law enforcement
• Criminal risk: Any scenario involving potential criminal liability for the entity or its people
• Capital markets implications: Any matter that could affect securities disclosures or regulatory filings
• Governance-level matters: Any issue necessitating board notification or board-level approval

Situations Strongly Favoring External Engagement

• Uncharted legal territory: Questions lacking settled authority where the organization's position could establish precedent
• Multi-jurisdictional complexity: Matters spanning unfamiliar or conflicting legal regimes
• Outsized financial stakes: Exposure exceeding the organization's defined risk appetite thresholds
• Specialist knowledge gaps: Subject areas not covered by in-house expertise (antitrust, anti-corruption, patent prosecution, etc.)
• Major regulatory shifts: New legal frameworks that require compliance program construction or significant adaptation
• Strategic transactions: Mergers, acquisitions, or major deals requiring diligence, structuring, and regulatory clearance

Situations Worth Evaluating for External Support

• Significant contractual disputes: Substantial disagreements over interpretation with important business partners
• Workforce claims: Actual or threatened claims involving discrimination, harassment, wrongful termination, or retaliation
• Data security events: Incidents that may trigger mandatory notification duties
• IP conflicts: Infringement allegations (inbound or outbound) involving material products or services
• Coverage disagreements: Disputes with insurance carriers over claim coverage

Selecting the Right Firm

When recommending outside engagement, prompt the user to weigh:

• Subject matter depth and track record
• Familiarity with the relevant jurisdiction
• Industry sector experience
• Conflict clearance status
• Fee structure expectations (hourly, flat, blended, contingency)
• Firm diversity commitments
• Pre-existing relationships (panel membership, prior engagements)